IRI Poll Correctly Predicts New Kenyan President

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 9, 2002

Nairobi, Kenya --The International Republican Institute (IRI) released the results of the Kenya Pre-Election Public Opinion Poll during a press conference on December 9, 2002 at 10:30 a.m. at the Norfolk Hotel.

IRI commissioned the latest in a series of polls conducted by the Kenya-based polling firm Strategic Public Relations & Research Limited. Strategic staff members interviewed 3,000 Kenyan registered voters in the eight provinces from November 17 through 20. The registered voters were asked about their views on the upcoming elections, presidential candidates, political parties, and other election related topics. The margin of error associated with a sample size of this type is ± 1.79 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.

The results of the survey show that Kenyans are optimistic about the next general elections: 91.5 percent of those polled say they will vote in the next general elections, 84.1 percent are optimistic that the next general elections will give them the opportunity to voice their opinions, and 50.5 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction based on the assumption that the December 27 election will result in positive change and a new government. The voters also report the most important electoral issue is political transition (29.9 percent), followed by the poor economy (16.3 percent), poverty (13.6 percent), and unemployment (11.6 percent).

According to the survey results, 94.9 percent of those interviewed have decided who they will vote for in the upcoming election. A majority (68.2 percent) say they will cast their ballots for NARC presidential candidate Mwai Kibaki. KANU presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta garnered 21.4 percent, followed by Simeon Nyachae (8.2 percent) and James Orengo (1.5 percent). The voters similarly say that they will vote in greater numbers for NARC parliamentary candidates (65.8 percent) than KANU (22.7 percent), Ford People (8.2 percent) and SDP (1.9 percent) candidates.

The voters were also asked about several other election related issues. When asked about the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), 67.2 percent say the ECK is accountable to Kenyans. Just over half (51.3 percent) agree that that it is an independent body. In response to questions about election violence, 80.3 percent say they have witnessed or experienced election violence in the past. They say that hired youths were the main perpetrators of electoral violence (42.1 percent), followed by politicians (31.2 percent), party agents (18.6 percent), state agents (15.6 percent), militia groups (14.2 percent), voters (7.3 percent) and election officials (0.8 percent). Voters also responded to questions about the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission. A majority, 82.8 percent, believe that the CKRC has been accountable to Kenyans and 74.2 percent think the draft constitution adequately represents the views of Kenyans. The poll also indicates that 80 percent of the respondents want a fixed election date in the new constitution.

IRI, in partnership with Strategic, has conducted public opinion polls in Kenya since 2000 to provide Kenya's diverse array of civic and political leaders and the media with information and analysis on key issues such as the upcoming elections and the ongoing reform process. In addition to commissioning polls, IRI has initiated training on the science of sampling, questionnaire development, interview techniques, and statistical analysis. IRI's training programs have not only targeted polling firms, but also members of civil society, policy makers, and the media practitioners. As IRI continues this important program, the main focus will be to continue and enhance the training of Kenyan organizations and individuals in survey methodologies.

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