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With the election of President Aleksander Lukashenko in 1994, Belarus saw a rapid rise in authoritarianism and a subsequent decline of democratic freedoms and civil liberties. The International Republican Institute (IRI) began assisting Belarusians in their struggle for democratic change in 1997, working in five key areas: party strengthening, coalition building, women’s initiatives, youth coalitions and public opinion research. These programs are the foundation of IRI's mission to support the institutional survival of democratic organizations and help their leaders and activists prepare for public policy roles in a future democratic Belarus.
Political Party and Candidate Development
Belarus' political parties are determined to build and improve their country and put it on a path towards freedom and democracy. In order to achieve this goal, 10 political parties and more than 200 nongovernmental organizations (NGO) have formed a coalition, the Unified Democratic Forces (UDF), with a stated objective of "creating a democratic, prosperous, European Belarus."
In 2005, the UDF implemented a process to select a single candidate to represent all pro-democratic forces in the 2006 presidential election. Beginning in June 2005, caucuses were held in approximately 150 districts of Belarus to select delegates to attend and participate in a national convention where a single candidate from all of the parties was chosen. The candidate nominated was Aleksander Milinkevich.
Milinkevich and the UDF campaigned vigorously in the lead-up to the March 19, 2006, presidential election. Using grassroots organization techniques, the opposition was able to increase Milinkevich's name identification and favorable ratings from 26 to 76 percent and 4.5 to 34 percent respectively, even though he had only two hours of access to state television and radio.
On January 14, 2007, Belarus held elections to the ‘soviets’ or local councils to fill 22,500 open seats. IRI assisted the UDF as it identified pro-democratic candidates, including women and youth; developed a national strategy and message; and canvassed the country in support of the pro-democratic candidates. The UDF faced mounting harassment and repression from the Lukashenko regime and many activists were jailed for their participation in these campaigns.
Despite their best efforts, only 300 pro-democratic candidates were allowed to be registered, and ultimately only 15 were elected. The election was immediately condemned by the international community as fraudulent and failing to meet democratic standards.
Following the local elections, in February 2007, IRI hosted a delegation of leaders of the UDF in Washington, DC. The purpose of the delegation’s trip was to present their vision and strategy for Belarus in the post-election period to key Western audiences. As one party leader stated, “This strategy includes development and presentation of a positive alternative for the Belarusian people, reforming of coalition structures, and strategy and planning of joint activities until 2008.” While in Washington, the delegation briefed congressional and administration officials, members of the news media as well as members of the foreign diplomatic community.
On May 26-27, 2007, 693 delegates along with more than 100 accredited news media and international observers gathered in Minsk, Belarus to participate in the Second Congress of Democratic Forces. The congress was a culmination of seven regional conferences that allowed regional delegates to address important issues facing the UDF. Of particular significance at the congress, delegates voted to restructure the leadership of the UDF by choosing a group of co-chairmen to lead the coalition instead of a single leader. The congress also adopted the "strategy of action" envisaging a positive alternative to the Lukashenko regime that engages society in a dialogue about the future of Belarus.
Public Opinion Research
To ensure transparency of the October 2004 parliamentary elections, IRI sponsored an exit poll that supported the findings of international observers that the election was invalid due to rampant fraud and intimidation.
IRI's exit poll results differed greatly from official election results. The government claimed pro-administration candidates won 108 of the 110 parliamentary seats. IRI's poll, conducted by the Gallup Organization's Baltic Surveys, showed Belarusians voted for opposition candidates outright in four to eight races and in nearly 50 races the results were close enough to have advanced to a second run-off.
There was also a referendum to abolish term limits on the ballot. While official results indicated nearly 80 percent of the electorate supported the change, IRI's exit poll determined that only 48.4 percent of the electorate voted for the change.
IRI also conducts regular national public opinion polls as well as series of tracking polls which graph the public's changing perceptions over a six week period. IRI's polling efforts are being currently being obstructed due to an increasingly difficult operating environment within Belarus, but it will continue to conduct public opinion polling in order to help guide the UDF's efforts at policy and message development targeted at Belarusian voters.
Youth Leadership Development
To ensure the future of democracy in Belarus, IRI is training the next generation of political leaders in neighboring countries. These activists, many who are new to the political process and traveling outside of Belarus for the first time, are exposed to other young political activists, local elected officials, and members of parliament. Youth are taught the basics of message development, issue identification, campaign strategy, voter outreach and get-out-the-vote activities.
Women's Initiatives
Women's participation is vital to the lasting success of any democracy as women make up a large percentage of the population and, generally speaking, bring a fresh approach to public policy. IRI is working with political party leaders to encourage the inclusion of qualified women candidates in all elections, and in the development of messages which resonate with women voters.
In the approach to the October 2004 parliamentary elections and the January 2007 local elections, IRI focused on preparing women candidates, not only as activists, but also as political candidates. IRI provided women candidates with specific training on public speaking, image creation, and how to effectively articulate a message that responds to the concerns of voters. Overall, women candidates demonstrated the willingness and ability to take on leadership roles in Belarus and several of and many women have continued to play an active role in the post-election period.
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