Senator John McCain

Thank you for inviting me to share a few words about Ukraine. The title of this conference is "Ukraine's Transition to a Stable Democracy," and I think we can all agree that a stable democracy is in the national interest of the United States. The question is whether Ukraine is headed down this path. From everything I have seen over the past few months, including during my August trip to Ukraine, I have doubts. There are certainly strong democratic currents there today, including a robust opposition and wide-ranging discussion of political issues in the run-up to the October 31 election. But at the same time the opposition has faced harassment and official disadvantages throughout the campaign, and there are strong indications that the election itself will not be free and fair.

Before I discuss the crossroads at which Ukraine's political system stands today, let me remind you of a fact that has been lost in much of recent Washington thinking. Ukraine is extremely important to its region, to the world, and to the United States. I fear that in recent years the United States and Europe have not been fully cognizant of the critical role Ukraine plays, and as a result, the aspirations of Ukrainians to see their nation firmly ensconced in the West have drifted.

I do not believe that most Ukrainians, if offered the choice, would choose a future tied closely to Russia. But many Ukrainians believe that they have not been offered this choice. NATO has made clear that Ukrainian membership is not on the horizon, and the EU has offered Kyiv little hope of joining one day. While the West's door seems closed, Russia's is always open, and it will be little surprise if Ukrainian leaders increasingly align their country's ambitions with those of their Russian neighbors.

The United States and Europe must see Ukraine for what it is - an important, proud, and populous country in a geostrategically critical position - a country with much to offer the West. It would be a terrible blunder if, because our inattention or mistakes, we allow Ukraine to slip back into the Russian orbit.

So while I believe the United States needs to pursue an enhanced relationship with Ukraine, it is also imperative that we make clear to its leadership that close ties with the West, and membership in our institutions, bring with it certain obligations - the most important of these is to move down the path of democracy.

I'm sure that I am not the first at this conference to note that Ukrainian democracy stands at a critical juncture today. Next month's election will determine not only who leads the country, but also how the democratic countries of the world view Ukraine. The upcoming elections were the chief topic of discussion when I traveled to the country in August, along with Senators Susan Collins, Lindsay Graham, and John Sununu.

During our trip, we met with a range of government officials, opposition figures, and NGO representatives. We heard repeatedly about problems the opposition faces in the run-up to the election - unequal access to the media, the use of tax laws to target opposition candidates, intimidation, even physical attacks. We heard about Radio Liberty being pulled off the air around the country and a crackdown against a cable company that broadcasts the opposition-leaning Channel 5. And we heard widespread expectations that the election on October 31 and the subsequent runoff will be manipulated by the government.

While in Ukraine, the other three senators and I made the point repeatedly - both publicly and privately - that the world is watching this election very closely. We noted that we do not support any particular candidate or party, but that we do expect to see a free and fair election.

I believe that we need to continue to make these points to the Ukrainian government at the highest levels. President Kuchma, Prime Minister Yanukovich, and other officials must understand the stakes facing their country. Because of their poor record thus far during the campaign, they have a very skeptical world to convince, even if they do run a clean election.

But while democracy in Ukraine today is under siege, if the President and the Prime Minister make the courageous decision that the Ukrainian people deserve the right to freely choose their government; if they decide that Ukraine's future best lies in a system of democracy, not autocracy; and if they allow a free and fair election that all the world can see; then I believe that the world needs to be prepared to respond.

This means looking hard at Ukraine's eventual membership in NATO and the European Union, expanding our bilateral relations with Ukraine, and determining ways to enhance the trading relationship. It means treating Ukraine like the strong, proud, independent, and democratic state that we hope it will become.

But, as I don't need to remind this audience, all of these remain big "if's." If things turn in a different direction, if the current anti-democratic political trends continue, I am afraid that Ukraine's relations with the West and with democratic countries around the world will inevitably suffer. And that is something that, because Ukraine is so important, and because the Ukrainian people deserve democracy, the United States must do all it can to avoid.

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