The Jordan Center for Social Research, an independent, non-profit think tank based in Amman, is releasing a second national public opinion poll today entitled "Democratic Transformation and Political Reform in Jordan." JCSR and its partners produced their first national poll in September 2005 which measured Jordanians' attitudes on a range of important political, economic and socials issues. In the wake of the tragic bombings in Amman in November, this poll revisits some of those questions and examines new issues, including: the most important challenges facing Jordanian society; attitudes on the urgency of political reform and the relative importance of security vs. political reform; public support for passing an anti-terrorism law; public perceptions of justice and procedural fairness; public confidence in various state and non-state institutions; public support for different political tendencies; and levels of support for various electoral models, including national list and district seat systems

The poll's main findings include:

• According to respondents, the most important problems facing Jordan today are: the rising cost of living (30.8%), unemployment (27.4%), poverty (18.3%), and deteriorating economic conditions (5.9%). (The results are similar to the first national poll in September except that poverty comes in third instead of fourth place in this poll, doubling in importance from what it was before--9.6% to 18.3%.)
• In an open-ended question, terrorism is considered to be the most important political problem requiring the government's immediate attention (29.1%) followed by instability of neighboring countries and its impact on Jordan (11.5%). (This is a significant change in public opinion since the September poll where the number one political problem was corruption and terrorism did not even register.)
• An increasing number of Jordanians (74.5%) think that peaceful political participation and protest is the most appropriate way to change the government, while only 5.7% think that violent action is an appropriate way to change the government. (Violent action was supported by 16% in the September poll).
• About half of respondents (48.8%) think that the 2003 election law (one-person one-vote) is the most appropriate for Jordan, 10.4% support a national lists system, 17% a one-seat one-district system, and 17.5% support a mixed (lists and district seats) system.
• If a mixed election system is applied in Jordan, more than half (53.7%) support each voter being given one vote while 35.4% support each voter having two votes.
• On the assumption that each person is given one vote in a mixed election system, a majority (62.4%) would choose to vote for the district candidates while only a fourth (25.6%) who would vote for the national lists.
• If parliamentary elections were held today 44% say that they would vote for Jordanian Nationalist candidates (a significant 17.4% rise since the September poll.) 23.4% say that they would vote for Political Islamist candidates (with a significant 13.4% decline since September.)
• Half of respondents (50%) are in favor of dissolving the current parliament and holding early parliamentary elections. 34.7% are against this option.
• An overwhelming majority (90.4%) support enacting an anti-terrorism law in Jordan.
• The majority of respondents (75.7%) think that political reform in Jordan should continue after the terrorist attacks in Amman with 11.2% saying it should be slowed down, and only 6.3% saying it should be completely stopped.
• 69.4% say that maintaining the security of the country and proceeding with political reform are equally important. One-quarter (25.8%) of respondents say that the stability of the country is more important than political reform.

The poll's sample consisted of 1,000 persons (50% male and 50% female) in Jordan who are 18 years or older. The sampling methodology used was a random cluster sample which included 100 sites located throughout the Kingdom. The framework used was the 2004 census. The poll was conducted by 52 field researchers between the 10th and 14th of December, 2005. The margin of error is ±2.5% at 95% confidence level. The field work for this poll was conducted by Middle East Marketing and Research Consultants (MEMRC).

This poll was supported by the International Republican Institute (IRI.)

For further information or inquiries, contact Dr. Musa Shteiwi
at the Jordan Center for Social Research.

Related Links

Jordan Center for Social Research Complete Survey Findings
Jordan Center for Social Research Graphs of Survey Findings