Poll Shows Equal Support for Abbas and Marwan Barghouthi

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 7, 2004

Palestinians Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and Marwan Barghouthi are in a statistical dead-heat according to an IRI-supported poll released today by the Development Studies Programme at Birzeit University. Approximately 46% of Palestinians polled in the West Bank and Gaza said they support Marwan Barghouthi, while 44% said they support Mahmoud Abbas (margin of error ±3%). However, when asked whom they expected would win upcoming Palestinian elections on January 9th, nearly 64% said they thought Abbas would win compared with 22% who said they thought Barghouthi would win. Compared with results from polling conducted earlier in the year, the poll demonstrates rising levels of support for Abbas and a decline in support for Barghouthi.

Fatah, the Palestinian Liberation Organization's largest faction, unanimously nominated Abbas to replace Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat as head of the Palestinian Authority, following Arafat's death in November. Barghouthi, who is serving five consecutive life terms in an Israeli prison for his role in armed attacks, reversed an earlier decision not to seek the presidency last week when 5,000 signatures supporting his candidacy were submitted to the Palestinian Central Election Commission.

Among other opposition candidates Dr. Mustafa Barghouthi is the only candidate to garner levels of support above 5%. Approximately 7% of Palestinians said they would support Mustafa Barghouthi among 10 candidates seeking the presidency. Dr. Barghouthi is the Secretary of the Palestinian National Initiative, a recently founded democratic opposition movement.

A significant number of Palestinians also remain undecided about who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential election. Approximately 24% said they had not decided who they would support. However, there is widespread support for the timely conduct of elections; 87% of Palestinians polled said they want elections to move forward on January 9, 2005. More than half of those polled also said they believe Israel would take measures necessary to facilitate the conduct of elections.

The poll demonstrated that support for Hamas decreased by approximately 4% since September 2004, to 20%. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have both declared their intent to boycott the upcoming presidential election. The boycott does not appear to have a significant impact on voter participation, as only 17% of those polled said they would not participate in the election as a result of the Hamas decision.

Of the approximately 1200 Palestinians polled in the West Bank and Gaza on December 3, 2004, more than 74% indicated they had registered to take part in the election.

Established in 1997, the Development Studies Programme is a policy and research center devoted to Palestinian development issues. DSP's activities are overseen by prominent Palestinian survey research expert Dr. Nader Said. Dr. Said holds a doctorate in sociology from Western Michigan University and contributed to the 2002 United Nations Arab Human Development Report. This most recent poll is the 20th in a series of public opinion surveys conducted by DSP and supported by IRI.

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