IRI-DSP Poll Reveals Optimism for New Palestinian Leadership and High Voter Confidence

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 10, 2005

Washington, D.C. -- According to the International Republican Institute (IRI)-supported poll conducted by the Development Studies Programme (DSP) at Birzeit University, an overwhelming majority of voters feel the new Palestinian leadership will to lead to an improvement in the performance of Palestinian National Authority, the economic situation, the internal security situation, and reinforcement of democratic practices.

"This poll reveals that beyond the primary concern of Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian cities, Palestinians are concerned with improving the economic situation and the resumption of talks with Israel," said Lorne Craner, president of IRI.

The poll also found that 72.5 percent of voters considered the election to be conducted in a free and fair manner. The poll indicated that 35.5 percent of voters decided for whom to cast their ballot in the last week and 64 percent had decided in the last month or earlier. In terms of selecting a candidate, the most important consideration was the candidate's political affiliation (14.7 percent), record in the struggle (12.4 percent) and ability to improve economic conditions (10.7 percent). Of those polled, respondents indicated that 53.6 percent support Fatah, 8.4 percent support Hamas, and 7.4 percent support the Palestinian National Initiative. Poll results did not indicate significant differences between the West Bank and Gaza. Poll results are attached and available on IRI's web site at www.iri.org.

Mahmoud Abbas won broad support from Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza to assume the position of chairman of the Palestinian Authority, which had been held by Yasser Arafat until his death in November 2004. Independent candidate Mustapha Bargouthi achieved a strong showing in second-place. The IRI-DSP election-day exit poll predicted a win for Mr. Abbas with 64.2 percent of the vote and predicted Mr. Bargouthi would garner 17.8 percent of the vote. Results from the poll were less than 2% away from the official results of 62.53 percent and 19.48 percent respectively.

Surveyors from DSP interviewed more than 8,000 Palestinian voters at more than 150 polling locations throughout the West Bank and Gaza on election-day. Results of the exit poll were released by DSP at a press conference in Ramallah, West Bank.

Established in 1997, the DSP is a policy and research center devoted to Palestinian development issues. DSP's activities are overseen by prominent Palestinian survey research expert Dr. Nader Said. Dr. Said holds a doctorate in sociology from Western Michigan University and contributed to the 2002 United Nations Arab Human Development Report. Having conducted the first and only exit poll in the Arab world at the time of the January 1996 Palestinian Legislative Council elections, as well as the first post-9/11 poll in the region, IRI and its local partners have a proven track record to provide critical public opinion information at pivotal moments.

IRI was founded in 1983 as a nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing democracy, freedom, self-government and the rule of law worldwide. IRI programs are nonpartisan and adhere to the fundamental American principles of individual freedom, equal opportunity and the entrepreneurial spirit that fosters economic development. In the 20 years since its founding, IRI has worked with political parties, governments and civil society to build the foundations and mechanisms of sustainable democracy in more than one hundred countries worldwide.

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