BIRZEIT UNIVERSITY Development Studies Programme
Tel: (972)-2-2959250 Fax: (972)-2-2958117 Ramallah P.O.Box 1878
Homepage: http://home.birzeit.edu/dsp e-mail: dsp@birzeit.edu
11 October, 2005
Public Opinion Poll # 22
Withdrawal from Gaza, President's Performance, and Legislative Elections
Date(s) of fieldwork: 30/9-2/10, 2005
Margin of error ±3%
Sample size: 1200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
- For further information or queries, please contact team coordinator Dr. Nader Said or Polling coordinator Ayman Abdul Majeed at the listed address or through our website.
- The opinions expressed do not necessarily represent the views of DSP- Birzeit University, or other sponsoring institutions.
- The polls conducted by DSP are supervised by an independent steering committee.
- Thanks go to our field researchers, and to the International Republican Institute (IRI) for their support.
Main Results
- An increase in the President Performance Index (PPI) from 33% (during April 2005) to 40%[1].
- There is a noticeable increase of support for President M. Abbas in Gaza Strip, where the PPI jumped from 33% to 45% (12 points more)
- Wide support of President Abbas' measures concerning the security situation in Gaza, where more than 82% of the respondents supported his effort in putting an end to the misuse of arms, chaos and public insecurity.
- 51% of the respondents believe that President Abbas is capable of implementing his platform in regard to arms’ chaos and insecurity.
- More than 74% of the respondents support a truce with Israel; in Gaza support for a truce reaches 83%.
- 72% expressed their opposition to militant parades, carried out by some factions; the percentage of opposition in Gaza Strip increases to 82%.
- 60% of the respondents still oppose the disarming of the various military groups (brigades). The percentage of opposition to disarming in Gaza is 50%, while the percentage of support is 45%.
- Around 70% expect that there will be an improvement in the functioning of the governmental institutions following the Israeli unilateral disengagement and 61% expect reinforcing the rule of law.
- A Fateh block (headed by Marwan Barghouthi) would win 46% of the votes, while Hamas block (if headed by Az- Zahhar) would win 23% of the votes. The National Initiative (Al- Mubadara) would gain 7% of the vote (if headed by Mustafa Barghouthi). On the other hand, a block comprised of both the Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) (headed by Ahmad Sa'adat) would gain 2.5%. The Peoples’ Party - PPP (headed by Bassam Salhi) would gain about 1.4%. What is worth mentioning here is that there will be a different voting pattern emerges with a change in leadership of the blocs.
- Marwan Barghouthi is the most popular candidate inside and outside Fateh, where he gets 55% of the votes when compared with other Fateh candidates. Az- Zahhar is the most popular candidate of Hamas' block (46%). Mustafa Barghouthi is the most popular among the candidates of the (Third Way) at 53%.
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[1] President Performance Index (PPI) is a quarterly evaluation index that evaluates the implementation of the President’s electoral platform since he was elected in January 2004 by applying a composite of nine different indicators which we shall list later. The PPI does not necessarily represent an evaluation of the President's current performance. The evaluation of the President is illustrated later.
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Analysis
Data
Sample Distribution
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