Financial Times Features IRI's Tunisia Poll

July 12, 2011

Tunisians lose confidence in transition
Financial Times
By Eileen Byrne in Tunis

Six months after Tunisians overthrew their president and sparked a region-wide wave of protests, public confidence in the country’s interim government has slumped.

Only 46 per cent of Tunisians are confident that the country’s transition to democracy is on course – down sharply from 79 per cent in March, according to a poll commissioned by the Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI).

Only a slim majority, 59 per cent, thought that the current government was likely to address Tunisia’s problems, down from 82 per cent in March.

Public interest in the political process among the country’s 7m-strong electorate remains strong: 86 per cent said they were “very likely” to cast a vote in elections for a constitutional assembly in October. The assembly, once elected, will rewrite the constitution ahead of legislative and presidential elections.

Nonetheless, 72 per cent have not yet decided who they will vote for, according to the poll. The findings suggest that Nahda, the main Islamist party, could perform well. It was supported by 9 per cent of those polled, followed by the centrist Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) with 5 per cent.

Rachid Ghannouchi, Nahda’s leader, was rated favourably by 44 per cent, but was outstripped in popularity by Beji Qaid Sebsi, the interim prime minister, who 74 per cent thought was doing well despite misgivings about the general situation.

For 63 per cent of Tunisians, however, the security situation remains one of their greatest concerns, amid reports of robberies and sporadic attacks on government buildings in provincial towns. Although the poll, which was carried out in May, indicated the public feels the economic situation has not significantly worsened since March, more than a quarter of the nationwide sample said they had difficulty feeding their families, and 33 per cent said unemployment had become much worse over the past year.

Mr Sebsi, will on Wednesday appeal to parties to work together despite the institutional vacuum left by the dissolution of the parliament of the former president Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali. In a speech to the Higher Council for the Achievement of the Goals of the Revolution, which since March has met in the parliament building, the 84-year-old Mr Sebsi will attempt to persuade Nahda to rejoin inter-party discussions, two weeks after it withdrew from the body.

The council, which has no constitutional status, is at present the closest thing Tunisia has to a parliament. It emerged spontaneously in the turbulent weeks following the revolution, as parties, trade unionists, human rights campaigners and independent figures came together to ensure that the interim government respected the goals of the revolution.

Under Tunisia’s interim administration, draft legislation becomes law only through a presidential decree. Nahda and the PDP said the council had overstepped its remit by shaping legislation. The two parties, regarded as the best-funded on the Tunisian political scene, are unhappy that a draft law on political parties could include a ceiling on individual donations to parties and an overall cap on party funding.