Washington, DC -- Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary elections and its implications were the topic of discussion at a panel sponsored by IRI and the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) on April 22. 

Beginning with a review of the pre-election campaign season and the preliminary election results, panelists discussed the internal dynamics within Iraq’s electoral coalitions and the likelihood that the coalitions will splinter into their constituent parties during the process of forming a government.  The composition of that government was a topic of some debate, with most panelists seeing the ouster of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as the one subject on which most Iraqi political factions agreed.  Although all panelists agreed that al Maliki’s coalition was the most unified, Ayad Allawi’s Iraqia coalition, winning the plurality of seats in the new parliament, indeed appears to be the most cross-sectarian, winning a sizeable number of seats in the Shia south of Iraq as well as the vast majority of Sunni votes.

There was agreement that the United States has remained removed from the negotiations over a government.  Mr. Haddad Ali in Baghdad suggested that this could be a disappointment to many Iraqis, who fully understand their country’s political limitations and expect the United States to play a more forceful role in ensuring an equitable government.

There was broad agreement that the economic future of Iraq is bright, with markets regaining their former vibrancy and major oil companies beginning to invest in the country’s natural resources. 

However, considerable danger remains.  If Iraq’s political factions are not convinced that the new government will work in their best interests a return to violence is possible.  Panelists generally agreed that this violence was far more likely to be political in nature rather than the broad sectarian violence of 2006-2007, and one panelist raised the electoral failure of most tribal candidates as particular cause for concern. 

Moderated by National Public Radio’s former Baghdad bureau chief Jamie Tarabay, panelists included Charles Dunne from the Middle East Institute, former advisor to the Iraqi Vice President Saifaldin Abdul-Rahman, IWPR Iraq country director Ammar al Shabander, and IRI Iraq Program Director Hal Ferguson.  BBC journalist Haddad Ali joined the panel by video teleconference from Baghdad.

###