By Lindsay Lloyd

Macedonia’s road to democracy has faced tough obstacles since independence from Yugoslavia in 1991.  Disputes with its neighbors, conflict in the region, and ethnic tensions that nearly led to civil war caused many to believe that the Balkan nation of two million people would be unable to forge a stable path forward.  In fact, while Macedonia wrestles with many troubles, it continues to progress in its quest to build democratic institutions, transform its economy, and join NATO and the European Union.

Macedonia’s identity as an independent nation was questioned by some circles in all of its neighbors.  To the north, some in Serbia challenged the existence of the Macedonian Orthodox Church.  In Bulgaria, to the east, some disputed the existence of the Macedonian language.  To the west, some in Albania flirted at times with a “greater Albania” ideology – threatening the unity of Macedonia, where one quarter of the population is ethnic Albanian.  And most notably, Macedonia’s southern neighbor, Greece, has blocked Macedonia’s efforts to join NATO and the EU in a longstanding dispute over the country’s name.

The Kosovo War in 1998 and 1999 and Kosovo’s subsequent declaration of independence in 2008 posed additional challenges to Macedonia.  Hostilities in the breakaway province led to large refugee flows into Macedonia and rising ethnic tension between the Slavic Macedonian majority and the Albanian minority.  In 2000 and 2001, an ethnic Albanian uprising brought Macedonia to the brink of civil war.

Despite this troubled history, Macedonia has made remarkable progress over the last two decades.  The country has secured peace within its borders.  The 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement provided increased rights for ethnic Albanians and saw the minority‘s political leadership become stakeholders in Macedonia’s democracy.  Although issues remain between the communities, each Macedonian government since independence in 1991 has included an Albanian party.  And while some Albanians were arguing for a partition along ethnic lines less than a decade ago, today the ethnic Albanian population and its leaders are among the staunchest advocates for EU and NATO membership. 

Although the Ohrid Agreement remains somewhat unpopular among ethnic Macedonians, it has brought peace and stability.  Polls conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) show that while 82 percent of respondents said the country was unstable in 2001, by December 2009, 79 percent said Macedonia’s stability had remained steady or increased over the preceding year.  Crucially, Macedonians also recognize the links between the Agreement and the country’s political and economic integration into Western institutions.

Macedonian elections, often troubled and disputed during the first decade of independence, have steadily improved.  The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) found that last spring’s presidential and municipal elections mostly met international standards.  While noting some continuing challenges, the generally positive judgment was a far cry from previous elections marked by violence and fraud.

As civil rights have expanded and tensions eased, citizens’ priorities have shifted.  While IRI polls in 2002 showed that the ethnic conflict was the top concern, by late 2009, only one percent of respondents named ethnic issues as the top issue.  Rather, the economy is the main concern for citizens, with 41 percent saying unemployment was the top issue.  Indeed, government statistics show unemployment topped 30 percent in 2009.  While it may be small comfort to Macedonians who lack jobs, the fact that economic and not ethnic issues have become the country’s toughest problem indicates progress.

The center-right ruling party and its Albanian partner hold a healthy parliamentary majority.  Recently, some have charged that the government has neglected the economy in favor of other issues.  Indeed, almost equal numbers of Macedonians say the country is moving in the right versus the wrong direction, a troubling sign for the incumbent parties.  But with no parliamentary elections due until 2012, Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and his cabinet have ample opportunity to focus on economic issues and job creation.

The leading foreign policy challenge for Macedonia today is the name issue.  Greece maintains that the use of “Macedonia” implies a claim on its province of the same name.  So despite Macedonia meeting the political and military criteria, Greece blocked it from joining NATO at the 2008 Bucharest summit.  Negotiations continue between Athens and Skopje, brokered by a U.N. envoy.  The population has consistently supported NATO and EU integration by 90 percent or greater margins over the last decade.  But swallowing a change in the country’s name – a Greek prerequisite - will be a bitter pill for many.

Joining NATO and the EU are fundamental to secure long-term economic growth and prosperity.  Assuming an agreement can be reached with the Greeks – no sure thing – elected officials will face daunting challenges in “selling” a deal to the population. 

But over the past 20 years, Macedonia has disproved the skeptics on many occasions.