Iraqis think U.S. will stay permanently, poll finds

By Brian Knowlton International Herald Tribune
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2006

WASHINGTON A large majority of Iraqis say they believe that the United States intends to maintain military bases in Iraq permanently, even if the recently elected government asks the Americans to leave, an opinion poll indicates. While the survey found growing optimism about their country among Iraqis overall, Sunnis were dramatically more pessimistic.

The survey, conducted in early January by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, said that nearly half of Iraqis approved attacks on U.S.-led forces — including 9 in 10 Sunnis.

The nationwide survey of 1,150 Iraqis included an oversample of 150 Sunnis — meant to provide a more accurate reading of the minority group's beliefs — and had a 3 percent margin of error.

A large majority of Iraqis favored a deadline for U.S. troop withdrawal of six months to two years. At the same time, two-thirds said they approved of U.S. involvement in nonmilitary activities, such as building government institutions, developing the oil industry and training Iraqi security forces.

"Iraqis are demanding a timetable for U.S. withdrawal," said Steven Kull, director of the Maryland polling group. "This appears to be leading some to even support attacks on U.S.-led troops, even though many feel they also continue to need the presence of U.S. troops for a while longer."

Just under half of Iraqis said they approved of attacks on U.S.-led forces, 23 percent strongly so. But while nearly 9 in 10 Sunnis approved of attacks, only 1 in 6 Kurds did. Four in 10 Shiites supported attacks. U.S.-led forces have faced their fiercest resistance in Sunni areas that were once Saddam Hussein's stronghold.

More than 9 in 10 Iraqis opposed attacks on Iraqi government forces, however, and disapproval of attacks on Iraqi civilians was nearly unanimous.

Despite the strong support for a U.S. troop departure, Iraqis showed considerable optimism about underlying progress.

Seventy-seven percent said the U.S.-led invasion to remove Saddam had been worth it, even keeping in mind "any hardships you might have suffered," while 22 percent disagreed.

Sixty-four percent said Iraq was headed in the right direction, to 36 percent who believed it was headed in the wrong direction. That represented a significant rise since November when, according to a poll by the International Republican Institute, just under half said the country was headed in the right direction.

Two in three Iraqis said the recent parliamentary elections were free and fair, and a similar number said that the new Parliament would be "the legitimate representative of the Iraqi people."

But the picture was sharply different among Sunnis. More than 9 in 10 said the country was headed in the wrong direction. Despite widespread Sunni participation in the Dec. 15 election, similar numbers said the parliamentary elections had not been free or fair and would not result in a legitimate government.

"The challenge is as strong as ever to make the Sunnis feel they are included in Iraq's political process," Kull said.