Poll: Support for Musharraf Waning

By ROBERT H. REID – February 11, 2008

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Public support for President Pervez Musharraf has plunged to an all-time low and opposition parties appear poised to score a landslide victory in next week's parliamentary elections, a U.S.-funded group said in a report released Monday.

The survey by the International Republican Institute also found that only 9 percent of those polled believed Pakistan should cooperate with the United States in the war against terror, although nearly three-quarters described Islamic extremism as a serious problem.

If accurate, the findings serve as a warning to the Bush administration, which has remained steadfast in its backing for Musharraf as a key ally in the war against terror. Musharraf is not running in the Feb. 18 election but needs a commanding majority in the new parliament to block any moves to impeach him.

The survey was released by an organization funded by the U.S. government and whose board chairman is presidential candidate Sen. John McCain. Musharraf supporters have alleged the group is influenced by supporters of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

The poll of 3,845 adults from urban and rural areas of Pakistan was conducted Jan. 19-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

It is the most comprehensive public survey yet of political opinion in the run-up to next week's vote, which is seen as key to Pakistan's transition to democracy after eight years of military rule under Musharraf.

According to the survey, 75 percent of the respondents want Musharraf to resign, and only 15 percent approve of his performance — an all-time low and down from 30 percent in a survey released by the Institute in December.

Nearly 80 percent said it would be good or very good for the country if Musharraf stepped down.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said he could not discuss the poll. "The bottom line here is that the Pakistani people have to have confidence in the elections. The election represents the will of the Pakistani people. We'll see what the outcome of that election is," McCormack told reporters.

Musharraf's popularity has been steadily eroding since March, when he launched a campaign to purge the Supreme Court and the judiciary of independent-minded judges who might challenge his rule.

Musharraf, who came to power in a 1999 military coup, declared a state of emergency Nov. 3 and fired Supreme Court judges and other top jurists.

Political tensions escalated dramatically after Bhutto was killed in a suicide bombing and gun attack Dec. 27 following a political rally in Rawalpindi.

The survey found that 62 percent those questioned believed the government was responsible for her death and not Islamic extremists as U.S. and Pakistani authorities contend.

"This indicates a collapse in the government's credibility among its citizens," the Institute said in its report.

The survey also found that opposition groups, especially Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party, were likely to profit from a strong sympathy vote at the expense of the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q.

Bhutto's party was leading in all provinces across the country, including the pro-Musharraf party's traditional stronghold in Punjab, where the PML-Q was trailing a distant third with only 19 percent, the survey found.

If accurate, that raises the possibility of an opposition sweep by Bhutto's party and the Pakistan Muslim League-N of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, assuming the election is not rigged.

The survey found half the respondents would vote for Bhutto's party, with Sharif's PML-N coming in second with 22 percent and the pro-Musharraf group trailing third with 14 percent.

Tariq Azeem, a spokesman for the pro-Musharraf party, disputed the findings, predicting his group would lose some seats but finish first in Punjab, the largest of Pakistan's four provinces and the key to power.

"Turnout in rural areas, where we have strong candidates, is always higher" than in the cities, Azeem said. "People vote here not according to party but according to the candidates."

Sarwar Bari, head of the Free and Fair Election Network which monitors the run-up to the parliamentary vote, said he believes Bhutto's and Sharif's parties will emerge as the largest in parliament but that regional groups could win enough seats to deny them a landslide.

Another opinion poll released last weekend by the U.S.-based Terror Free Tomorrow organization also found that Bhutto's party would win, but by a much smaller margin. That poll, using a smaller sampling, found her party would take 36.7 percent of the vote, with 25.3 percent going to Sharif's party and 12 percent to the pro-Musharraf PML-Q.

Pakistan's complicated system of allocating seats makes it difficult to predict how many members of each party might end up in the assembly. But the Institute predicted that no party would win enough seats to govern without forming a coalition with rival groups.

The survey found 72 percent would prefer a coalition of Bhutto's party and Sharif's group.

Pakistanis appeared divided on the issue of Islamic extremism, with a strong majority concerned about militants operating inside the country but also opposed to the alliance with the U.S.

The survey found that 65 percent were concerned about Taliban and al-Qaida fighters operating on Pakistani soil. But only 33 percent supported the Pakistani army's fight against extremists along the Afghan border.

The survey did not explain the apparent conflict, but many Pakistanis believe U.S. pressure for heavy-handed tactics against the militants have made the situation along the frontier worse.

Associated Press correspondent Stephen Graham contributed to this report.