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IRI Statement on Kenya Election Day Poll

August 14, 2008

Washington, DC – IRI today issued the following statement regarding the Election Day poll it conducted in conjunction with Kenya’s December 27, 2007, elections.

“In February 2008, IRI issued a statement outlining the reasons for withholding release of its Election Day poll, based on concerns raised by Craig Tufty of PSI in Alexandria, VA.

“IRI subsequently arranged for Wilson Research Strategies of Washington, DC, to conduct a complete audit of the poll. Those findings were then reviewed by Bob Carpenter of American Viewpoint and Craig Tufty of PSI.  Their findings, based on the new data entry, can be read here:

“After this extensive analysis, IRI now has confidence in the validity of the audited Kenya Election Day poll data file and its results.  The audited file yielded a statistically different result from the original data file. According to media accounts, the original poll showed an eight-point win for Raila Odinga.  The audited file shows a six-point win.  The difference in the two results is outside the poll’s margin of error of 1.35 percent.

“The poll revealed voters in Kenya believed the election was void of major problems such as voter fraud or maladministration.  Additionally, the voters were skeptical that politicians at any level were able to fulfill promises.  Candidates who had new ideas regarding the economy and employment were favored by the voters.

“IRI conducts public opinion research worldwide, and it is the policy of the Institute not to release research findings until and unless there is a high level of confidence in the validity of the research.”