2011 Nigeria National Elections
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country, but, as one of the country's most powerful northerners, he also had the support of millions
of voters in the north. In the days leading up to the election there were rumors of a "grand
coalition" between Ribadu and Buhari. However, this alliance never came to fruition.
IRI's National Public Opinion Survey (Pre-Election)
As the April elections approached, IRI released a
on Nigerians' expectations
for the country's upcoming elections. The survey, conducted between November 29 and December
12, 2010, was intended to inform Nigerian media, election officials, candidates, and political parties
about current public perception of key issues, voter education and prospects for peaceful and
credible elections.
IRI's poll indicated that Nigerians as a whole were optimistic about their prospects for peaceful and
credible elections in 2011. Seventy-seven percent of those interviewed agreed that the elections
would be mostly free, fair and credible and 74 percent believed that they would be more credible
than the 2007 elections. Eighty-four percent very strongly or somewhat agreed that Nigeria would
be ready for elections by April 2011. With respect to violence, only 21 percent felt that there would
be more or the same level of violence in 2011 versus 2007. Unfortunately, while this proved to be
untrue in the wake of the outbreaks following the April 16 presidential election, the result shows
public optimism four months before elections, and before any milestones (e.g., voter registration,
party primaries, etc.) had been met.
Confidence in various institutions was also tested, with the president of Nigeria rating second
highest after religious institutions (81 and 76 percent, respectively, stated that they had a lot or some
confidence in these institutions). INEC also polled positively, at 63 percent, even though the poll
was conducted at a time when INEC had not produced any concrete achievements, other than
postponement of voter registration and the elections themselves. Confidence in the media polled at
69 percent—third highest of the institutions tested. Voter interest also appeared to run high, as 89
percent of those polled indicated that they would definitely or probably vote in the upcoming
presidential election.
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A similar majority also indicated their intention to vote in the national
assembly and state-level elections.
IRI's Pre-Election Assessment Mission
To evaluate the state of preparations in the lead-up to the elections, a second joint pre-election
assessment mission was conducted (led by IRI) just one month before the elections (February 28 –
March 3). IRI's mission was led by the former president of the Republic of Ghana, His Excellency
John Kufuor, who was joined by a small team of international experts in civil society, development,
democratic reform and election systems (see Appendix C for the complete roster of experts who
participated in the mission). The IRI delegation met with the chairman and commissioners of
INEC, members of the national assembly, the president of the Court of Appeals, and the inspector
general of police, as well as presidential candidates, religious leaders, representatives of political
parties and civil society organizations, including women's activists, the media and international
development partners.
Similar to the poll, IRI's mission found that Nigerians were hopeful for credible national elections
but equally cognizant that many challenges remained in the final month of preparation.
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The poll sampled only Nigerians of eligible voting age.
