IRI Ukraine Poll: Strong Majorities Believe in Victory over Russia, Support European Union and NATO Membership

Kyiv, Ukraine – The latest public opinion survey in Ukraine conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) finds strong majorities believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia in the war and are optimistic about the future. Support for joining the European Union (EU) and NATO is high.  

Ukrainians are overwhelmingly optimistic about their future. When asked if Ukraine will win the conflict with Russia, 88% responded “yes.” Additionally, 80% said the future of their country looks “rather promising.”

“Despite more than two years of relentless attacks from Russia, Ukrainians continue to believe that they will emerge victorious from the war,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI. “Our polling has consistently shown that Putin cannot dent their strong sense of morale.”  

The poll also shows that Ukraine wants to align with the West. Seventy-seven percent of Ukrainians would support joining the EU relative to a customs union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Similarly, 77% stated they would vote in support of Ukraine joining NATO if a referendum were held today.

“Our data is very clear, Ukrainians believe that closer ties with the West gives them a better chance of achieving lasting peace and prosperity,” said Nix. 

Methodology     

The survey was conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research of the International Republican Institute throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from February 17-21, 2024, through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile telephone numbers. The total sample consists of n= 2,000 Ukrainians aged 18 and older.  The sample excludes any Ukrainians not currently in Ukraine. The survey data obtained was weighted by regional and age indicators using data by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022.  The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level does not exceed +/-2.2 percentage points.​ The response rate was 14 percent.    

The study was funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).