Kyrgyzstan Poll Suggests High Voter Intent Ahead of Parliamentary Elections

A new nationwide poll by the International Republication Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) highlights the importance of party campaigning ahead of the October 4 parliamentary elections, demonstrates voter appetite for change and shows low satisfaction with the government’s COVID-19 response.

While more than three-quarters of citizens plan on voting in the upcoming elections, more than half remain undecided about which party to vote for. However, the survey also shows that there are far fewer undecided voters in regions where campaigning took place before the local elections were canceled due to COVID-19. Even among decided voters, no party received the support of more than 15 percent of likely voters. This largely undecided and highly fragmented electorate leaves room for any party to draw a large pool of voters over the course of the campaign period.  

The poll shows that voters are ready for change. A high percentage is supportive of younger candidates for office, with 46 percent of citizens more likely to support a younger candidate for office. Furthermore, majorities are also open to voting for female candidates or for political newcomers.

Likely contributing to citizens’ desire for change, just one-third of adults are satisfied with the government’s response to coronavirus. Among the two-thirds who are dissatisfied, support for younger candidates running for office rises to 50 percent. Moreover, one in five adults considers COVID-19 to be a very serious concern, with citizens citing the pandemic as one of the country’s biggest problems along with unemployment and corruption.

Read the Russian version of the poll here.

Читаете русскую версию исследования здесь.

Methodology  

The survey was conducted on behalf of IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by SIAR Research & Consulting with support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) between August 6 and 15, 2020. This is IRI’s first telephone survey in Kyrgyzstan – a change from IRI’s traditional face-to-face polling necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Data was collected through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) randomly drawn from a database with a combination of mobile and landline numbers. Three-quarters of the database’s phone numbers were sourced from participants in previous SIAR face-to-face and telephone surveys, and one-quarter of phone numbers consist of randomly generated numbers. The sample consists of 1,223 respondents aged 18 and older. The sample was weighted for oblast/city, age, gender and urbanicity. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent for the full sample with a confidence level of 95 percent. The response rate was 47 percent.

This survey is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.