Washington, DC – An IRI poll conducted from January 13-24, 2005 shows 63.8 percent of Iraqis are very likely and an additional 19.6 percent are somewhat likely to vote in the country’s January 30 election.  The results also show that a majority of Iraqis believe the election will improve the situation in their country.  Political identification also increased as Iraqis prepare to choose between the 111 choices for the Transitional National Assembly.

“This poll shows that a majority of Iraqis are ‘very likely’ to vote in Sunday’s election, and a majority of Iraqis believe the election will lead to a better Iraq,” said Lorne Craner, president of IRI.  “Over the past nine months Iraqis have continually said they intend to vote despite the threats and intimidation by the terrorists.  Their determination to have a free and democratic Iraq is an inspiration to us all.”

Among Iraq’s Sunni-Arabs 21.5 percent say that they are very likely to vote, and 28.2 percent responded as somewhat likely to participate.

When asked how they would perceive the outcome of the election if unable to vote, 50 percent of respondents said they would accept the results so long as they felt that most Iraqis had a chance to participate in the election.  An additional 20 percent said they would accept any elected government even if they were unable to vote personally.  Looking beyond the election, nearly 45 percent of respondents believe the election will help to bring positive gradual change, while more than 30 percent expect a dramatic improvement of the situation in the country as a result of tomorrow’s vote.

The political vacuum that has existed between the Iraqi people and their potential representatives continues to shrink.  The latest data showed that 60 percent of Iraqis have a concrete idea about which entity they will choose on Election Day, up from 50 percent in IRI’s poll taken less than three weeks ago and up 45 percent from IRI’s May poll.

More than 1,800 face-to-face interviews were conducted from January 13-24, 2005.  Interviews were conducted in 15 of the 18 governorates.  The margin of error is plus or minus three percent.

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