IRI Ukraine Poll Shows Strong Confidence in Victory over Russia, Overwhelming Approval for Zelensky, Little Desire for Territorial Concessions, and a Spike for NATO Membership
Kyiv, Ukraine – The latest public opinion survey in Ukraine conducted by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) shows that confidence in winning the war against Russia and approval for President Zelensky remain very strong. Most Ukrainians do not believe in conceding any territory and support for NATO membership has spiked.
When asked if they believe Ukraine will win the war, 98% said yes. With regard to President Zelensky, 91% of Ukrainians approve of his job performance.
“The information gathered from this poll is confirmation from our previous survey,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for IRI’s Eurasia Division. “Ukrainians are very firm in their conviction that they will be victorious in the conflict against Russia, and they overwhelmingly support the actions of their wartime president.”
Support for NATO membership has increased in recent months. Seventy-two percent of Ukrainians would back joining NATO if a referendum were held today. That is a jump of 13 percentage points from a poll released in May.
“The NATO numbers have increased because Ukrainians continue to believe in the benefits of Transatlantic institutions,” said Nix. “The people have expressed increased support for a strong relationship with Western countries that desire a peaceful and democratic future.”
The poll also shows a large majority of Ukrainians do not believe they will cede any territory to their Russian invaders. Sixty-four percent say Ukraine will maintain all territories from its internationally recognized borders in 1991 after the current war. Another 14% say that Ukraine will regain territory under their control prior to Russia’s February 24 attack.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research of the International Republican Institute throughout Ukraine (except for the in the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts) from June 27-28th, 2022, through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The total sample consists of n= 2,004 Ukrainians aged 18 and older. The sample excludes any Ukrainians not currently in Ukraine. The survey data obtained was weighted by regional and age indicators using data by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as of January 1, 2020. The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level does not exceed 2 percentage points for the full sample. The response rate was 16 percent. The study was funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
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