New Moldova Poll: Tight Presidential Race, Negative Outlook Ahead of Elections

Chișinău, Moldova – A new nationwide survey of Moldova by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research indicates a tight race ahead of the country’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled to take place November 1, 2020. The poll also reveals a negative national outlook among citizens and concerns about the economy and governance.

“Moldovans are clearly disillusioned with the government’s economic management and leadership,” said IRI Regional Director for Eurasia Stephen Nix. “In this highly competitive race, the presidential candidates must offer voters platforms that place their concerns front and center.”

According to the poll, if elections were held next Sunday, there would be just a two percentage point difference between the two leading candidates (20 percent and 18 percent). Given the contested nature of the election, a second-round runoff between the two candidates is almost certain, giving candidates another opportunity to articulate their vision to voters.

Seventy-two percent of respondents believe that the country is headed in the “wrong direction” as opposed to the “right” one. Likely contributing to their negative outlook, Moldovans cited unemployment (32 percent), low income (23 percent) and the country’s leadership (22 percent) as the most important problems facing Moldova today. On a household level, low income (33 percent) and unemployment (24 percent) topped the list of key concerns, with healthcare following in third place (21 percent).

Methodology

This survey was conducted on behalf of IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR) by Ipsos between July 16 and August 23, 2020. The fieldwork was conducted by Magenta Consulting. Data was collected through computer-assisted phone interviews using a dual-frame survey mode of both mobile and landline phones. The sample consists of 2,017 Moldovans aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. The data was weighted for age, gender, region and settlement size.

The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent and the response rate was seven percent. Due to the COVID-19-necessitated change from face-to-face to telephone polling, CISR advises that trend comparisons against past polls be treated with caution. This survey was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the U.S Agency for International Development.